Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment: An Expanded Analysis of Threats and Strategies

Global catastrophic risks represent threats with the potential to harm or permanently set back human civilization on a global scale. RAND Corporation’s “Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment” provides a comprehensive evaluation of high-stakes, low-probability events that could impact the future of humanity. Initiated in response to the “Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act” (GCRMA) of 2022, this assessment focuses on key threats: artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, nuclear war, severe climate change, pandemics, and supervolcanoes. The report explores these risks, addressing both their causes and potential mitigation strategies. Through these evaluations, RAND identifies areas where policy, scientific research, and international cooperation could play essential roles in preparing for, preventing, and responding to catastrophic events.

Understanding Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks

The GCRMA categorizes catastrophic risks as incidents that could significantly impact human civilization on a global scale. This definition contrasts with existential risks, which refer to events capable of leading to human extinction. Both categories necessitate tailored risk management strategies to prevent or reduce their potential impacts. RAND’s report evaluates these risks with attention to likelihood, scope, and the broader societal implications, including economic stability, human well-being, and environmental systems.

Addressing these risks requires a balanced approach that combines prevention with the ability to respond and recover. In RAND’s framework, catastrophic risks are classified into two categories—natural and human-made—each posing unique challenges. The report emphasizes the rising nature of many of these threats due to factors like technological advancements, environmental changes, and geopolitical tensions.

Evaluating the Major Threats to Humanity

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) holds both potential benefits and substantial risks, especially as it becomes more integrated into critical systems such as economic, governance, and infrastructure networks. Advanced AI can perform tasks with increasing autonomy, enabling significant efficiency gains but also introducing risks related to decision-making, control, and alignment with human values. If developed or deployed without adequate oversight, AI could exacerbate other threats, including nuclear risks and cybersecurity vulnerabilities, potentially creating complex, cascading effects that destabilize society.

Key Risk Factors Associated with AI

• Control and Oversight: Ensuring that AI systems remain aligned with human interests is essential. Establishing protocols for human intervention and oversight is fundamental to prevent unintended consequences.
• Rapid Development: The pace of AI advancement often outpaces regulatory and safety measures, creating a gap between deployment and effective risk management.
• Public Trust and Engagement: Transparent engagement with the public regarding AI risks and benefits fosters trust and informed decision-making, which are necessary for the responsible integration of AI systems.

Mitigation Strategies for AI Risks

1. Establishing Safety Standards: Developing robust safety protocols to govern the design, deployment, and oversight of AI systems.
2. Regulatory Frameworks: Implementing regulatory measures that ensure AI systems are subject to rigorous testing and are capable of modification or deactivation if necessary.
3. Public Engagement and Transparency: Open and ongoing communication with the public to increase awareness of both the risks and benefits of AI.

Asteroid and Comet Impacts

Asteroids and comets, though infrequent in their threat, represent a risk of substantial impact depending on the size and trajectory of the object. Small to medium-sized asteroids impact Earth with varying frequencies, ranging from every 100 to several thousand years. Larger impacts are extremely rare but have the potential to cause planet-wide devastation and even extinction-level events.

Evaluating Impact Likelihood and Consequences

• Size and Frequency of Impact: The probability of an impact is inversely related to the size of the object. Small asteroids may hit frequently with localized effects, while larger objects are rarer but pose greater threats.
• Immediate Impact Mechanics: The initial effects of an impact include shock waves, thermal radiation, and an ejecta cloud. These consequences can devastate regions and even affect global weather and climate.
• Historical Data and Detection: The geologic record and astronomical tracking of near-Earth objects provide insights into impact probabilities, though continued improvements in detection technology are necessary.

Mitigation Strategies for Asteroid Risks

1. Detection Systems: Expanding space-based and terrestrial telescopes for early detection of potential asteroid threats.
2. Deflection Strategies: Developing technologies, such as kinetic impactors, to change the course of an incoming asteroid.
3. International Collaboration: Coordinating planetary defense strategies among nations, as asteroid impacts are a threat to all humanity.

Nuclear War

Nuclear warfare presents one of the most serious existential threats, with the capability to cause immediate, widespread destruction and long-term environmental impact. Beyond the direct casualties, a nuclear exchange could lead to nuclear winter—a period of global cooling caused by smoke and soot entering the atmosphere, blocking sunlight, and reducing global food production. This prolonged cooling could result in mass starvation and further destabilization.

Factors Contributing to Nuclear Risk

• Geopolitical Tensions: Shifting alliances, arms races, and regional conflicts heighten the risk of nuclear engagement.
• Technological Complexity: The sophistication of nuclear command-and-control systems can affect the likelihood of miscommunication or accidental launches.
• Long-Term Economic and Environmental Implications: Beyond immediate destruction, nuclear war would likely devastate global financial markets, trade, and ecosystems, creating cascading effects on food, water, and economic security.

Mitigation Strategies for Nuclear Risk

1. Arms Control Treaties: Strengthening existing treaties to limit nuclear arsenals and prevent proliferation.
2. Civil Defense Programs: Preparing public infrastructure to withstand nuclear attacks, including bomb shelters and evacuation plans.
3. Diplomatic Conflict Resolution: Expanding diplomatic channels and conflict resolution mechanisms to reduce tensions and prevent escalation.

Rapid and Severe Climate Change

Rapid climate change is increasingly recognized as a catastrophic risk, primarily due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The effects include rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise, which threaten to disrupt ecosystems, infrastructure, and economies. If global temperatures increase beyond 2°C, irreversible ecological damage and significant societal impacts could result, with warming above 4°C potentially leading to widespread uninhabitability in some regions.

Key Aspects of Climate Change Risk

• Food and Water Security: Disruptions in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events threaten agricultural productivity, posing risks of food shortages.
• Human Health: Heat waves, vector-borne diseases, and mental health impacts from displacement are among the health challenges associated with climate change.
• Infrastructure Vulnerability: From water supplies to transport networks, infrastructure faces increased strain and potential failure due to extreme weather.

Mitigation Strategies for Climate Change

1. Emission Reductions: Focusing on renewable energy, carbon pricing, and energy efficiency to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Geoengineering Research: Exploring speculative methods, like carbon capture or solar radiation management, as potential emergency interventions.
3. Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Investing in resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme climate events, especially in vulnerable regions.

Severe Pandemics

Pandemics, whether from natural pathogens or engineered organisms, represent a growing risk due to increased human mobility, encroachment into wildlife habitats, and advancements in biotechnology. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the profound societal and economic disruptions that pandemics can cause, underscoring the importance of preparedness for infectious diseases with high transmission rates.

Drivers of Pandemic Risk

• Human Encroachment and Mobility: Increased human contact with wildlife and high global mobility raise the probability of pathogen transmission across species and countries.
• Synthetic Biology and Biotechnology: Advances in biotechnology could inadvertently or deliberately introduce pathogens with pandemic potential.
• Variability in Preparedness: Differences in healthcare infrastructure and response capabilities impact global preparedness and ability to mitigate pandemic effects.

Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Risk

1. Enhanced Public Health Systems: Investing in healthcare infrastructure, training, and stockpiling essential resources to respond effectively to pandemics.
2. Biosafety Standards: Enforcing stringent safety measures in labs researching high-risk pathogens to prevent accidental releases.
3. International Health Coordination: Collaborating with global health organizations to improve early detection, share research, and mobilize response efforts.

Supervolcanoes

Supervolcanoes are rare but pose severe risks due to their potential to cause massive climate disruptions and widespread ecosystem damage. Supervolcano eruptions release vast amounts of ash and gases into the atmosphere, which can cool the planet and disrupt agricultural production globally. The estimated probability of a supervolcano eruption is low, with return periods around once every 15,000 years, but the catastrophic consequences make preparedness vital.

Factors of Supervolcano Risk

• Rarity and Unpredictability: Limited geological data make predicting supervolcano eruptions challenging, though monitoring technology is improving.
• Immediate and Long-Term Effects: Eruptions result in immediate destruction in surrounding areas, followed by global cooling due to stratospheric aerosols.
• Mitigation Limits: While evacuation and early warning are possible, long-term adaptation to volcanic winters presents complex challenges.

Mitigation Strategies for Supervolcano Risk

1. Improved Monitoring Systems: Advancing monitoring at known supervolcano sites to detect warning signs and enable early response.
2. Stockpiling Resources: Building reserves of food and medicine to prepare for prolonged disruption in global food supply.
3. Research on Geoengineering: Exploring potential geoengineering measures to mitigate the cooling effects of supervolcanic eruptions.

Recommendations for Effective Policy and Global Preparedness

The RAND report emphasizes the need for comprehensive risk management practices to address the varied and evolving threats posed by these global risks. Policy recommendations for improving preparedness and resilience include fostering international cooperation, expanding research funding, and developing adaptable strategies capable of responding to new information as threats evolve.

1. Enhanced International Cooperation: Since global catastrophic risks transcend national borders, partnerships among countries are essential for effective mitigation and response.
2. Targeted Research Funding: Increasing funding for research on emerging threats like AI and synthetic biology is critical to address knowledge gaps and inform policy.
3. Adaptive Policy Frameworks: Policymakers need flexible frameworks that can evolve with new information, particularly for complex risks such as climate change and AI, where uncertainty is high.

Summary

RAND’s “Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment” presents a thorough examination of potential impacts, causes, and mitigation strategies for AI, asteroid impacts, nuclear war, severe climate change, pandemics, and supervolcanoes. This expanded analysis emphasizes the need for resilience and preparedness, highlighting the importance of proactive, flexible strategies to manage and mitigate these global risks. By focusing on prevention, response, and international cooperation, policymakers can better safeguard humanity from these existential and catastrophic threats, fostering a more secure and resilient future.